基于交互实验的长时拼车决策演变及非理性行为

[Objective] This study aims to accurately depict the long-term carpooling decision-making behaviors of travelers in real-world scenarios, identify irrational psychological traits, and optimize incentive mechanisms and their effects. [Methods] An experimental framework and incentive mechanism based on a bottleneck model are developed. Additionally, long-term interactive experiments are conducted using prospect theory to analyze the evolution of carpooling decisions and irrational behaviors under differentiated incentive strategies. [Results] In incentive-based carpooling services, most travelers exhibit greater decision fluctuations when encountering potential losses, thus highlighting loss-aversion psychology, particularly among women with one to three years of driving experience, high income, fewer commuting days, and greater awareness of the incentive mechanism. By contrast, groups such as high-frequency commuters and highly educated, low-income individuals show no significant traits. Introducing a compensation mechanism for carpooling-matching failures further increases carpooling rates. [Conclusion] The findings confirm loss - and risk-averse behaviors in avoiding carpooling to mitigate potential costs (e. g., time delays and additional expenses). [Applications] Considering the heterogeneous irrational characteristics of travelers, refined adjustments to incentive strategies, including personalized incentive amounts, introduction of compensation mechanisms, improved feedback content, and enhanced matching algorithms, can be proposed to provide theoretical support and practical guidance for designing precise and effective carpooling incentive strategies.