基于专利计量的颠覆性技术识别方法研究

Disruptive technology, as an important part of technological innovation, has become a powerful engine driving of technological change. How to discover and identify disruptive technologies earlier, is of great significance, which is helpful for enterprises and countries to grasp the opportunities of technological development. For this reason, this paper proposes a technological disruptive potential identification model based on patent bibliometrics. Firstly, we summarized the properties and characteristics of disruptive technology. Secondly, based on patent database, we built the quantitative index to characterize technical disruptive properties. The disruptive indexes include technical fusion index, technical novelty index, technical expansion index, and technical influence index. Thirdly, we used entropy method and fuzzy consistent matrix method to quantitatively measure technical disruptive potential. Finally, we chose five technologies to carry out empirical research from three aspects: 1) Comparative analysis of traditional technology and disruptive technology in the same field; 2) Comparative analysis of different disruptive technologies; 3) Comparative analysis of disruptive technologies in different period. In this way, the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method is confirmed. Meanwhile, the empirical research can further demonstrate the applicability of the disruptive potential index.