卫 星 解 体 碎 片 云 对 低 轨 星 座 的 碰 撞 影 响 分 析

With the development of satellite constellation technology in the field of low-orbit communication，the density of space objects in Earth orbit is rising sharply，which leads to the increasing probability of breakup events. To ensure the safe operation of the constellation and the sustainable utilization of orbital resources，it is of great significance to study the collision risk of the debris cloud generated after the breakup event to the low-orbit constellation. Firstly，the probabilistic method is proposed to analyze and predict the evolution of debris cloud density. On this basis，the collision probability of a single debris is discretized，and the Poisson distribution is used to calculate the combined collision probability of all debris. Finally，the comprehensive collision probability is used as the evaluation index of collision risk，and the dynamic evolution result of collision risk with time is obtained. The simulation analysis shows that the collision probability fluctuates periodically with time，the range of collision probability decreases gradually in each period，and the overall trend is downward. The influence of satellite disintegration on the vicinity of its orbit is much greater than that on other orbital planes in the constellation，and the configuration of the constellation with large eccentricity is more affected by disintegration of the constellation.