Unveiling the mystery: Does the traffic control policy in Beijing trigger a rebound effect in household electric vehicles?

Despite the strong support for electric vehicles (EVs) from the Chinese government, their environmental benefits are not well known, especially as they could be offset by potential rebound effects. This paper examines whether EVs could trigger rebound effects under special traffic control policies in Beijing and identifie potential driving factors of rebound effects at the residential level. The data was collected through a survey of 368 Beijing residents who own private vehicles. It was found that EVs have not caused a significant rebound effect at present. However, the potential rebound risk of promoting EVs cannot be ignored. On the one hand, EVs may increase travel demand among certain groups, especially for the single-EV household, whereas the considerable increase in travel mileage may cause higher energy consumption. On the other hand, purchasing additional EVs as a fallback option would result in resource waste. The scenario analysis found that if an EV is used to replace an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV), the rebound effect will highly likely occur (72.17 % ± 62.01 %) and the original energy-saving goal cannot be achieved; while if households with an ICEV are allowed to buy an additional EV, there is a risk of a rebound or even backfire effect (the rebound effect is 6.64 % ± 24.43 %). The driving factors of rebound effects included family size, commuting distance, and individual preference for pro-environmental elements. In particular, environmental awareness could easily lead to a counterproductive result, resulting in rebound effects.