Prediction of the Objects Distribution in LEO Based on a Long-Term Evolution Model of the Space Environment

With the deployment of mega constellations in LEO, the space would experience a dramatic increase in debris population. To measure the influence of space debris, one way is to establish the long-term evolution model of the space debris environment. In this situation, the modelling method of tracking the state of the space objects individually requires significant computing resources which is not efficient. Another way utilizing macroscopic variable such as the spatial density as the state variable instead of the motion of individual object requires only small computational efforts. In this paper, a space debris environment evolution model taking the spatial density is established. This model considers non-zero eccentricity of the object orbit, and utilizes the NASA Breakup Model and the Gaussian mixture model (GMM) to improve the model accuracy. Based on the evolution model, the long-term impacts of mega constellations and their post mission disposal (PMD) on the debris environment are discussed.